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1-Month SOFR Forward Curves

NO. 19 Part 2 | CHART FOR THOUGHT

  • The forward curve of benchmark rates for real estate loans, such as 1-month term SOFR, serve as the market’s prediction for where the Fed will pause hiking and the shape of potential Fed cuts as inflation declines further and/or the economy sputters
  • The expected terminal rate for the Fed during this hiking cycle ratcheted up between December 2022 and March 2023 after CPI and jobs report readings suggested that a tight labor market may keep inflation levels elevated
    • At that time, the curve pointed to the Fed inching closer to a benchmark rate in line with CPI and then gradually cutting rates alongside further declining inflation
  • However, by mid-March news of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank ignited concerns of how the banking sector would be impacted and if increased volatility could be expected in the near term. In response, the market outlook adjusted the forward curve towards fewer rate hikes and earlier rate cuts
  • Silicon Valley Bank’s difficulty navigating higher rates and the tightening economic conditions imposed by the Fed will undoubtedly be on the minds of the Open Market Committee as they determine how to proceed in their fight against inflation and balance that with the health of the economy
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Dennis Grzeskowiak

Principal

Mr. Grzeskowiak co-founded Bellwether in 2013 and has 20 years of experience in asset management and special servicing. At Bellwether, Mr. Grzeskowiak focuses on portfolio management and technology initiatives, with particular asset management expertise in debt as well as multifamily equity investments totaling over 33k units. Prior to forming Bellwether, he was Vice President of Asset Management at Trimont Real Estate Advisors, where he was responsible for a $2bn portfolio of performing and non-performing commercial real estate investments related to multiple property types throughout the United States. During his time at Trimont, Mr. Grzeskowiak developed a proprietary valuation cash flow model used to analyze over $30bn of debt and equity investments. Mr. Grzeskowiak has a B.A. in Economics and International Studies from Rhodes College.

Joe Mossotti

Principal

Mr. Mossotti co-founded Bellwether in 2013 and currently focuses on residential, corporate, development and hotel investments throughout the United States. Prior to founding Bellwether, he worked in the Asset Management / Portfolio Management group at JER Partners, a Washington D.C. based private equity firm. At JER, he was responsible for investment- and fund- level modeling as well as the disposition and workout of the remaining portfolio. Before joining JER, Mr. Mossotti worked at Billy Casper Golf Management. Mr. Mossotti holds a B.S. in Finance from Siena College, and is a licensed CPA.

Mitch Magoshi

Managing Director, Construction

Mr. Magoshi joined Bellwether Asset Management in 2018 after 15 years of experience in the construction industry. Prior to joining Bellwether, he most recently worked as a senior consultant with Gardiner & Theobald, Inc., an international construction project and cost management firm. Before joining G&T, Mr. Magoshi was a Construction Manager and Partner at Plant Construction Company, L.P., a leading general contractor in the San Francisco Bay Area. At Plant, he was involved in all aspects of the construction process from business development and preconstruction to project management and site supervision. Mr. Magoshi holds a B.S. degree in Business Administration with a minor in Architecture from Carnegie Mellon University.

Omar Vargas

Senior Vice President, Controller

Mr. Vargas joined Bellwether Asset Management, Inc. in 2018 and has over 15 years of professional experience. Prior to joining Bellwether, he was the Corporate Controller at Landmark Dividend LLC, a Los Angeles based real estate company. At Landmark Dividend, he was responsible for all aspects of the accounting, financial reporting, and asset management functions. Before joining Landmark Dividend, Mr. Vargas was an Audit Senior Manager at Deloitte, where he was responsible for overseeing various teams on real estate advisory services. Mr. Vargas holds a B.S. in Accounting from California State University, Long Beach, and is a licensed CPA.

Carolyn Leslie

Managing Director, Equity

Ms. Leslie joined Bellwether in August 2020 and is primarily responsible for the asset management of west coast office investments.  She has twenty years of commercial real estate investment experience, most recently as the Director of Asset Management at Atlas Capital Group, a New York based owner and developer, and oversaw the redevelopment of ROW DTLA.  Before joining Atlas Capital Group, she was at Watt Companies as a Senior Asset Manager responsible for an office, retail and multifamily portfolio.  Ms. Leslie has a B.A in economics from Vanderbilt University and an M.B.A from Pepperdine University’s Graziadio Business School.

Patrick Foley

Principal

Mr. Foley joined Bellwether in 2014 and is currently responsible for coverage of corporate, development and residential investments in the United States. Prior to joining Bellwether, he was an associate at Cross Properties, a Philadelphia based multifamily developer. Mr. Foley has a B.S. in Economics with a concentration in Finance from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

Benjamin Easton

Managing Director, Equity

Mr. Easton joined Bellwether in April 2014, after having spent two years at NMS Properties, a Los Angeles based multifamily company. Prior experience includes two years at Mesa West Capital, a Los Angeles based commercial real estate finance company. Mr. Easton began his career in Los Angeles working in brokerage in 2007. He holds a B.A. degree in International Business from Loyola Marymount University.

David Chalison

Principal

Mr. Chalison joined Bellwether in 2016 and is responsible for supporting portfolio management functions for Bellwether’s institutional clients. Prior to joining Bellwether, he was Director of FP&A at Chronos Solutions, a Texas-based mortgage service company. Mr. Chalison received a B.S. in Finance from Santa Clara University and holds an M.B.A. from Loyola Marymount University.

Chris Carlson

Senior Vice President, Structured Finance

Mr. Carlson joined Bellwether Asset Management in July 2014 and is currently a Senior Vice President responsible for the performing residential whole loan strategy. He has fourteen years of experience in structured products and the secondary mortgage market. Prior to joining Bellwether, he was a risk analyst with Western Asset Management, where he was responsible for analytics on a $50bn portfolio of whole loans, structured mortgage products and private corporate investments. Mr. Carlson began his career as a member of the Fannie Mae Analyst program in 2005. He has an M.B.A. from UCLA Anderson and a B.A. in Economics and Philosophy from Washington & Lee University.

Michael Baracco

Principal

Mr. Baracco has been a part of Bellwether since its inception and is currently responsible for asset management coverage of office and hotel investments. Prior to joining Bellwether, he was a Senior Project Engineer at Lockheed Martin Corp. where he supported and ensured successful execution of multi-billion dollar contracts including satellites, flight modernization systems, and submarines. Mr. Baracco has an M.B.A. from the University of Denver and a B.S. in Physics from Washington & Lee University.